Top 1% Wealth Deep Dive & AI-Era Scenario Simulator
Future wealth projections for the U.S. top 1% vs. S&P 500 — with allocation, tax drag, and “exclude billionaires” options.
single-file HTML
Simulation Controls
Start wealth incl. billionaires ($T):
Start wealth ex-billionaires ($T):
Assumed billionaire share (% of 1% wealth):
Horizon (years):
Equity baseline return (nominal, %/yr):
Bond return (nominal, %/yr):
AI boost to equity (pp/yr):
Dividend yield (equity, %/yr):
Dividend tax rate (%):
Bond return taxed at (% of total):
Show scenarios:
60/40
80/20
100% S&P
Apply to:
Top 1% incl. billionaires
Top 1% excl. billionaires
Run simulation
Download CSV
Defaults: start wealth ≈ Q4-2024; equity 9%, bonds 3%, AI boost +0.5 pp, dividend 1.7% taxed at 23.8%, bonds taxed at 37%.
Projected Wealth Paths
Summary (End Wealth & CAGR)
Scenario
Group
End Wealth ($T)
CAGR (%/yr)
Δ vs 100% S&P ($T)
Method: equity net = equity baseline − (dividend × dividend tax) + AI boost; bond net = bond return × (1 − bond tax). Portfolio = w
eq
×equity_net + (1−w
eq
)×bond_net. Annual compounding.
What to Know
Historical anchor: top-1% wealth ≈ doubled 2015→2024 (≈$25.9T→≈$50.2T). Ex-billionaires grows slightly less.
At the very top, portfolios tilt to equity (public + private). That drives S&P-like co-movement.
Deterministic simulator—stress test by changing returns or turning off AI boost.